Mixed Signals in Canada’s Housing Market: Sales Down but Starts Surge — What BC Buyers and Landlords Should Know

February’s Canadian housing statistics paint a complicated picture: transactions continue to slip while construction activity shows surprising strength in some regions, notably Metro Vancouver. For people living in British Columbia, these diverging trends create both opportunities and uncertainties.

Nationally, the Canadian Real Estate Association reported 30,244 MLS transactions in February, an 8.1% decline from the same month a year earlier and a modest 1.3% dip after seasonal adjustment. The CREA’s benchmark price index edged down slightly month‑over‑month and is roughly 4.8% lower than a year ago, while the national average sale price sat around $663,800 — only marginally beneath last year’s level. CREA remains cautiously optimistic for 2026, forecasting higher sales and a modest rise in average prices.

At the same time, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s latest release showed a rebound in housing starts: seasonally adjusted annualized starts climbed to about 250,900 units in February, up from January. On a city basis, starts in population centres of more than 10,000 jumped year‑over‑year, with Vancouver-area starts registering an unusually large increase. Other major markets were mixed: Toronto saw a marked slowdown in starts while Montreal experienced growth.

These conflicting signals reflect several forces at work. Demand remains subdued as many prospective buyers wait for a clearer path on mortgage rates before committing. Inventory measures are mixed: the total number of active listings has risen year‑over‑year but remains below long‑term averages, and new listings in February eased back after a January spike. On the supply side, developers appear to be pushing on with some projects, but economists warn that slower population gains, high construction costs and unsold condo stock could temper future starts.

The Bank of Canada’s recent decision to hold interest rates has not removed uncertainty. With the central bank underscoring that the outlook depends on a range of unresolved factors, neither a rate cut nor a re‑tightening can be taken for granted. That uncertainty is a key reason many buyers remain on the sidelines.

So how should people in BC interpret this combination of softer sales and stronger starts?

Buyers: If you’re a first‑time buyer in the Lower Mainland, modest price softness and more new supply in some pockets can create opportunities, especially if you can secure financing and have a medium‑term horizon. Waiting for a dramatic price collapse is risky — timing the market perfectly is rare.

Sellers: In neighbourhoods where new supply is rising, sellers may face more competition and should price realistically and invest in presentation. In tighter pockets with limited inventory, sellers may still find demand relatively resilient.

Landlords and investors: Rising starts and a larger pipeline of multi‑unit buildings could ease rental pressure over time, but persistent construction costs and local policy changes mean returns should be modelled conservatively. Consider location and pre‑sale risk carefully.

What this means in BC

For British Columbia, especially Metro Vancouver, the data suggest a window where buyers may find pockets of affordability as supply grows in certain segments. Renters could benefit from increased purpose‑built rental and condo completions down the line, though timing is uncertain. Sellers in supply‑heavy neighbourhoods should temper expectations; sellers in constrained areas retain negotiating leverage. Overall, plan for a gradual market rebalancing rather than an abrupt reversal — and factor in interest‑rate uncertainty and local policy changes when making any housing decision.